Liberty Energy’s third-quarter 2025 results offered a clear-eyed view of today’s completions market — and an ambitious look ahead at where energy services are heading. While revenue and profitability softened amid a slowdown in North American frac activity, the company’s remarks on market context and outlook reveal both realism and long-term conviction.
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🛢️ The State of the Frac Market: A Transitory Slowdown
Liberty Energy acknowledged what much of the industry already feels: frac activity has dropped below the level needed to sustain North American oil production. The slowdown, driven largely by oil producers moderating completions, reflects a cautious response to softer crude markets and macro uncertainty.
As CEO Ron Gusek noted:
“Oil producers… opted to moderate completions against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty and after exceeding production targets during the first half of the year.”
Yet Liberty views the pullback as “transitory in nature”, with recovery potential on the horizon. According to Gusek, the company expects global oil oversupply to peak during the first half of 2026, creating a more balanced market and setting the stage for improvement.
“Moderation in activity anticipated in the near term is transitory… Many shale oil producers are targeting relatively flat oil production, requiring modest activity improvement in the coming year from current levels.”
⚙️ Pricing Pressure and Fleet Attrition
The company also shed light on one of the key dynamics shaping today’s service market — underutilized fleets and downward pricing pressure. Conventional fleets, in particular, are being hit hardest as operators defer or downsize activity.
“Lower industry activity and underutilized fleets… are driving pricing pressure, primarily for conventional fleets. This slowdown is accelerating equipment attrition and fleet cannibalization, setting the stage for a more constructive supply and demand balance of industry frac fleets in the future.”
In other words, while the near-term environment is challenging, the inevitable attrition of older equipment could lead to a healthier, tighter market by 2026.
🔋 Next-Generation Fleets Hold Their Ground
Amid these headwinds, demand remains firm for next-generation, low-emission, high-efficiency fleets — the type Liberty has spent years developing. The company’s digiTechnologies platform, anchored by the digiPrime electric pump and the StimCommander AI automation system, continues to outperform.
“The outlook for higher quality, next generation fleets remains strong, as operators continue to demand next generation fleets that provide significant fuel savings, emissions benefits, and operational efficiencies.”
This focus on digital technology, automation, and sustainability gives Liberty a durable advantage, especially as operators prioritize ESG performance and total cost of ownership.
⚡ The Power Play: AI, Electrification, and Energy Reliability
Beyond oilfield services, Liberty is doubling down on a new frontier — distributed power generation. Through its subsidiary Liberty Power Innovations, the company is targeting high-demand customers in data centers, industrial facilities, and mining operations.
Gusek sees structural power demand growth as a defining energy theme of the decade, driven by AI compute loads, industrial reshoring, and electrification.
“Structural demand for power continues to strengthen, as evidenced by large-scale, long duration power commitments across the industry. AI compute load represents a meaningful long-term growth opportunity… broader electrification trends and industrial reshoring efforts are also driving incremental, steady base load demand.”
At the same time, he pointed to the fragility of the grid, with reliability and transmission constraints creating openings for flexible on-site power models:
“Liberty’s on-site power solutions are fully customizable power plants that provide consumers with reliability and clarity around power costs, serving as a strategic hedge against potentially significant increases in grid power prices.”
This expansion into the power market marks a significant evolution for Liberty — from a leading completions company to a broader energy technology platform positioned at the intersection of hydrocarbons, electrification, and AI infrastructure.
🔮 Looking Ahead: From Headwinds to Opportunity
While 2025 has tested the oilfield services sector, Liberty remains confident in its long-term position. As Gusek put it:
“We remain focused on expanding competitive advantages through cycles, allowing us to navigate softer anticipated conditions in the months ahead while remaining well-positioned to react swiftly when demand for frac services rises.”
With a tighter frac market expected in 2026, continued demand for next-gen fleets, and a fast-growing power business approaching 1 gigawatt of capacity, Liberty’s multi-front strategy suggests resilience and reinvention are core to its DNA.
Bottom Line
Liberty Energy’s outlook blends pragmatism and optimism. The company is realistic about short-term pricing pressure — but it’s also investing where the future is heading: AI-powered completions, electrified fleets, and flexible power infrastructure.
For an industry in transition, Liberty’s message is clear:
🔹 Survive the cycle.
🔹 Invest through innovation.
🔹 Position for the next energy frontier.
