Western Canada’s heavy oil sector entered 2026 in a very different posture than past cycles. This is no longer a story about broad-based growth or aggressive acreage capture — it is about execution, capital discipline, and running repeatable drilling programs where infrastructure already exists.
The data makes that clear. A small group of operators account for the majority of wells drilled, active rigs, and forward permit inventory, while the rest of the basin operates with measured, highly selective programs. By looking at 2026 wells drilled alongside 2025 execution, active rig counts, and near-term permit signals, a clear hierarchy emerges: who is running heavy oil as a scaled manufacturing operation, who is pacing activity deliberately, and who is positioning for the next phase of development.
1) Cenovus Energy Inc.
The undisputed heavy-oil scale leader
Wells Drilled 2026: 198 (highest in the dataset)
Wells Drilled 2025: 650
Active Rigs: 24 (largest active fleet)
Permits:
• Last 12 Months: 242
• Last 60 Days: 42
• CY + PY-1 + PY-2: 1,593
What this tells us:
Cenovus is operating heavy oil at full manufacturing scale. Massive 2025 volumes carried directly into dominant 2026 execution, supported by the deepest multi-year permit inventory and the largest active rig footprint. This is long-cycle, capital-anchored development with no signs of slowing.
2) Suncor Energy Inc.
Large-scale execution with controlled pacing
Wells Drilled 2026: 121
Wells Drilled 2025: 145
Active Rigs: 17
Permits:
• Last 12 Months: 102
• CY + PY-1 + PY-2: 464
What this tells us:
Suncor is running a sizable but tightly managed heavy-oil program. Strong 2026 execution is backed by a healthy permit base, but with less near-term permit acceleration — consistent with disciplined capital deployment rather than aggressive expansion.
3) Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL)
High-intensity execution with strong forward visibility
Wells Drilled 2026: 96
Wells Drilled 2025: 254
Active Rigs: 13
Permits:
• Last 12 Months: 249
• Last 60 Days: 65 (strongest near-term signal)
• CY + PY-1 + PY-2: 832
What this tells us:
CNRL combines scale with momentum. Elevated 60-day permit activity signals continued acceleration into 2026, while the multi-year inventory confirms long-term commitment. This is one of the most commercially attractive heavy-oil programs in the region.
4) CNOOC Petroleum North America
Focused, repeatable heavy-oil development
Wells Drilled 2026: 70
Wells Drilled 2025: 95
Active Rigs: 7
Permits:
• Last 12 Months: 36
• Last 60 Days: 16
• CY + PY-1 + PY-2: 251
What this tells us:
CNOOC is running a steady, infrastructure-driven program with clear continuity from 2025 into 2026. Recent permit issuance confirms near-term drilling intent without excess inventory buildup.
5) Greenfire Resources Ltd.
Emerging growth story with accelerating intent
Wells Drilled 2026: 32
Wells Drilled 2025: 17
Active Rigs: 4
Permits:
• Last 12 Months: 26
• Last 60 Days: 14
• CY + PY-1 + PY-2: 104
What this tells us:
Greenfire is clearly ramping. 2026 drilling already exceeds 2025 totals, and recent permits point to continued acceleration. This is a growth-phase operator transitioning toward steady-state execution.
6) Baytex Energy Corp.
Balanced execution with consistent inventory support
Wells Drilled 2026: 24
Wells Drilled 2025: 52
Active Rigs: 5
Permits:
• Last 12 Months: 40
• Last 60 Days: 7
• CY + PY-1 + PY-2: 175
What this tells us:
Baytex maintains a reliable, mid-scale heavy-oil program. Permits and rig activity support continued drilling without aggressive expansion — ideal for predictable service demand.
7) Strathcona Resources, Ltd.
High efficiency with sustained execution
Wells Drilled 2026: 23
Wells Drilled 2025: 148
Active Rigs: 4
Permits:
• Last 12 Months: 39
• Last 60 Days: 20
• CY + PY-1 + PY-2: 321
What this tells us:
Strathcona drilled heavily in 2025 and remains active in 2026 with fewer rigs, suggesting efficiency gains. Strong recent permit activity indicates continued development without overextending capital.
8) Fort Hills Energy Corporation
Targeted program with limited expansion signals
Wells Drilled 2026: 12
Wells Drilled 2025: 38
Active Rigs: 3
Permits:
• Last 12 Months: 6
• CY + PY-1 + PY-2: 98
What this tells us:
Fort Hills appears to be operating a contained, maintenance-style program. Limited new permits suggest stable operations rather than growth-oriented drilling.
9) ConocoPhillips Canada Resources Corp.
Selective participation in heavy oil
Wells Drilled 2026: 12
Wells Drilled 2025: 55
Active Rigs: 2
Permits:
• Last 12 Months: 7
• CY + PY-1 + PY-2: 112
What this tells us:
ConocoPhillips’ heavy-oil activity remains selective. Drilling continues, but at a modest scale relative to its broader portfolio — indicating optionality rather than core focus.
10) Caltex Trilogy Inc.
Steady private operator with consistent cadence
Wells Drilled 2026: 11
Wells Drilled 2025: 63
Active Rigs: 3
Permits:
• Last 12 Months: 24
• Last 60 Days: 1
• CY + PY-1 + PY-2: 162
What this tells us:
Caltex Trilogy is maintaining a steady heavy-oil program backed by solid multi-year inventory. Activity levels suggest continuity rather than expansion, making it a dependable but measured operator.
Western Canada’s heavy oil activity in 2026 is concentrated among a small group of operators executing disciplined, infrastructure-led drilling programs rather than chasing broad-based growth. Wells drilled, active rigs, and permit signals clearly separate scaled manufacturers from selectively paced operators, revealing where near-term execution and sales opportunity are actually concentrated.
