Oil prices could surge dramatically if a major supply disruption—such as a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz—removes millions of barrels per day from global markets. With limited ability to quickly increase production, analysts say prices may need to rise toward $150–$200 per barrel to force “demand destruction” and rebalance supply and consumption.

President Donald Trump announced plans for the first new oil refinery built in the United States in nearly 50 years, a proposed 168,000-barrel-per-day facility in Brownsville, Texas backed by investment from India’s Reliance Industries. The project, led by America First Refining and targeting construction as early as Q2 2026, is designed to process U.S. shale oil and could generate up to $300 billion in long-term economic value through crude processing and refined product output.

Select Water Solutions has filed a new air permit with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality for its Breakwater Big Spring Recycling System, a produced water recycling facility located near Big Spring in Howard County, Texas, that supports drilling and completion operations in the Midland Basin. The facility plays a critical role in helping operators such as OXY, Diamondback Energy, HighPeak Energy, and Ovintiv recycle produced water for hydraulic fracturing, reducing freshwater demand and disposal volumes while supporting ongoing drilling activity in the region.

An extended outage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility—the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export hub—could trigger a global supply shock by removing a significant share of LNG from international markets. If the disruption lasts several months, stronger global demand for alternative LNG cargoes could increase U.S. exports and push domestic natural gas prices higher.

U.S. crude oil exports declined 3% in 2025 to 4.0 million barrels per day, marking the first annual drop since 2021 despite record production of 13.6 million b/d. The decrease was largely driven by lower shipments to Europe and Asia, as more crude went to U.S. refineries and Strategic Petroleum Reserve stock builds.