ConocoPhillips has been clear in recent earnings calls: flexibility, not volume growth, is now the defining feature of its Lower 48 strategy. Rather than chasing barrels, the company is prioritizing free cash flow durability, capital discipline, and the ability to rapidly adjust activity as commodity prices and macro conditions change.
Nowhere is this strategy more visible than in the Bakken.
By pairing management commentary with actual well-level data from North Dakota, a clear picture emerges of how ConocoPhillips is applying its “flexible inventory” philosophy in practice—and why the Bakken has shifted into a steady, cash-generating role rather than a growth engine.
What ConocoPhillips Means by “Flexible Inventory”
When ConocoPhillips talks about flexible inventory, they are referring to short-cycle shale assets that allow the company to:
- Dial drilling activity up or down quickly
- Maintain production with fewer rigs
- Protect free cash flow and dividends during weaker price environments
- Avoid long-term capital commitments that lock in spending
Management has emphasized that production is an output, not a target. Capital allocation comes first, and volumes follow. This approach stands in contrast to earlier shale cycles that prioritized continuous growth.
Within the Lower 48, the Delaware Basin is positioned as the primary growth and flexibility backbone. The Bakken, by comparison, now plays a different—but still important—role.
What the Bakken Data Shows Since 2024
A review of wells drilled by ConocoPhillips in the Bakken since 2024 reinforces this strategy shift.
Wells Drilled by Year
- 2024: 143 wells
- 2025: 70 wells
This sharp year-over-year decline reflects intentional activity moderation, not operational issues. The Bakken is being throttled back as capital is reallocated to higher-return opportunities elsewhere in the portfolio.
County Concentration: Core-Only Development
Drilling activity is tightly concentrated in ConocoPhillips’ strongest Bakken acreage:
- McKenzie County: 101 wells
- Dunn County: 89 wells
- Mountrail County: 19 wells
Together, McKenzie and Dunn account for more than 80% of all recorded wells. This concentration underscores a “core-only” strategy—maximize returns from proven rock while avoiding capital dilution in fringe areas.
Contractor and Rig Discipline
The Bakken program is also highly standardized operationally. The top contractor-rig combinations account for a large share of activity:
- H&P 603: 52 wells
- Nabors B20: 39 wells
- H&P 429: 35 wells
- Nabors X08: 31 wells
- Nabors B06: 21 wells
This reliance on a small number of proven rigs and contractors aligns with a steady-state model focused on efficiency, repeatability, and cost control rather than rapid scaling.
How This Fits ConocoPhillips’ Broader Strategy
ConocoPhillips’ earnings call commentary makes it clear that not all shale inventory is being treated equally:
- Delaware Basin: Deep inventory, flexible growth, capital priority
- Bakken: Mature, predictable, cash-flowing asset
- Alaska & LNG: Long-cycle, high-impact projects
In this context, the Bakken is no longer expected to drive corporate growth. Instead, it functions as a controllable lever—activity can be reduced without jeopardizing the balance sheet, while still delivering strong margins on remaining wells.
This is precisely what flexible inventory is designed to do.
Implications for the Bakken Market
For operators, service companies, and midstream players, ConocoPhillips’ approach carries several clear signals:
- The Bakken remains economically relevant—but growth will be limited
- Activity will stay concentrated in core counties
- Contractor lineups will remain tight and relationship-driven
- Volatility in rig counts should be expected as prices move
Rather than boom-and-bust cycles, the Bakken under ConocoPhillips is entering a phase of controlled decline and optimization.
Bottom Line
ConocoPhillips’ flexible inventory strategy is not theoretical—it is showing up directly in Bakken drilling data. Fewer wells, fewer rigs, tighter geographic focus, and disciplined contractor selection all point to a mature asset being managed for cash flow, not growth.
For the Bakken, this marks a transition from headline shale growth story to something quieter—but arguably more sustainable: a reliable contributor in a capital-disciplined portfolio.
