New well permit activity in the Grande Prairie region — the heart of Montney drilling — is surging.
📊 From January to June 2025, new well permits jumped by over 50% compared to the same period in 2024. This surge comes despite volatile natural gas prices, signaling rising operator confidence that LNG exports will transform the market heading into 2026.
Grande Prairie Market Intel Kit – $25
Includes – Account List, Rig Report, Wells Drilled. Well Permits and Facility Permits all YTD
This isn’t speculation. Here’s what the top Montney operators are saying and doing:
🇨🇦 CNRL: Drill-to-Fill with Flexibility
CNRL continues to advance its Montney development under its “drill-to-fill” strategy — drilling to maximize utilization of its existing gas plants. This approach allows CNRL to throttle activity up or down based on market conditions. For 2025, the company is positioning for a demand uplift, expecting that LNG exports will bolster gas prices and plant utilization.
🧠 ARC Resources: Discipline First, Ramp Later
ARC’s 2025 Montney strategy is a study in discipline. The company curtailed activity in early 2025 amid ultra-low gas prices but is ready to ramp up completions in the second half of the year. Their view? Western Canada LNG will be the catalyst for stronger prices and more completions.
🚢 Shell: Aligning with LNG Canada Startup
Shell remains conservatively positioned on Montney spending but is aligning its drilling program with the expected mid-2025 start of LNG Canada. By late 2025, Shell expects its Montney production will flow into the LNG facility, significantly improving netbacks and unlocking future development.
💰 Ovintiv: $600M Commitment with Caution
Ovintiv plans to spend $600 million to drill 80 Montney wells in 2025, confident in the play’s long-term potential. However, the company is pacing growth to avoid overshooting in a still-recovering gas market. It’s a calculated bet on LNG reshaping demand fundamentals.
📈 Tourmaline: Growth Tied to Price Curve
Tourmaline has explicitly stated that it will “match planned production growth to the anticipated increasing natural gas price curve.” That means flat production in H1 2025, with new wells timed to come online in H2, just as LNG Canada is expected to tighten supply and boost pricing.
🔥 Birchcliff: Bullish on Structural Price Gains
Birchcliff is optimistic, stating it expects a “structural improvement” in gas prices over 2025, driven by LNG startup demand and growth in gas-fired power generation. The company points to LNG Canada and other North American export terminals as major tailwinds.
🚀 Kelt Exploration: Betting on Late-2025 Price Strength
Kelt is ramping up Montney drilling in 2025, aiming to capture improved pricing later in the year. The strategy positions Kelt for volume growth and makes it a potential key supplier to LNG Canada and Alberta’s expanding power market.
🧠 Takeaway:
The 52% surge in new permits isn’t random — it’s a strategic response to an upcoming structural shift in natural gas demand, anchored by LNG Canada’s mid-2025 startup.
Operators are moving now to be ready later. The second half of 2025 could be the start of a new gas cycle for Western Canada — and the Montney is at the center of it.
