Canada’s long-awaited Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion is up and running — but not yet at full capacity. The $34B project (up from $4.5B) is moving ~790,000 bpd, with full capacity set at 890,000 bpd. Yet high tolls are raising concerns among producers, some of whom are pushing back through regulatory hearings this summer.
Despite the cost overruns, there are real wins:
✅ Half the volumes are headed to Asia, diversifying markets
✅ Alberta production hit records in Q1
✅ The Canada–U.S. crude price differential has narrowed to under $10/bbl
✅ Alberta gains ~$740M in revenue for every $1 improvement in the differential
Will this Crown-owned asset pay off? Some believe it will — if it operates for decades to come. Indigenous groups like Project Reconciliation remain interested in ownership. And with the U.S. relationship uncertain, export optionality has never been more valuable.
Follow this closely — Trans Mountain may become more than a pipeline. It could be a long-term tool for Canadian energy security and Indigenous participation.
