At the World Economy Summit on April 23, 2025, Domenic Dell’Osso, Jr., President and CEO of Expand Energy, joined FOX Business Network Senior Correspondent Charlie Gasparino for a wide-ranging discussion on the state of the economy, energy markets, and the future of natural gas.
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At the session, Dell’Osso highlighted the resilience of U.S. natural gas demand, driven by LNG exports, data center growth, and AI-powered electricity needs, which together are expected to add 5 Bcf/d of incremental demand before the end of the decade. He emphasized that even in the face of recessionary concerns, natural gas remains strategically vital, with inelastic demand from power-hungry sectors like AI and crypto providing a structural floor. Dell’Osso also addressed challenges around infrastructure and permitting, underscoring the need for expanded pipelines and grid capacity to fully unlock U.S. energy potential.
Here’s a structured summary of the key points from the transcript you shared on the current state of the economy and energy industry:
📉 Economic Context
- The economy is uncertain but not in recession at present.
- Oil and gas markets remain a strong macro indicator for economic health.
- Industrial activity and demand for marginal energy (e.g., manufacturing power draw) are the best signals for an impending recession.
🔋 Energy Demand Drivers
- Natural Gas Demand
- U.S. LNG export capacity and secular demand growth underpin stable natural gas markets.
- A global recession would have to be severe to materially dent U.S. natural gas demand.
- AI, crypto, and data centers have inelastic power demand, creating a baseline floor for gas usage.
- AI-driven electricity demand alone is forecast to add 5 Bcf/d by 2030, ~⅓ of projected LNG export growth.
- Renewables vs. Base Load
- ~84% of incremental U.S. generation under construction is renewable.
- Renewables are intermittent (average capacity factor ~30%), making them unreliable for base load demand (e.g., data centers).
- Natural gas and nuclear remain essential for stable, around-the-clock power.
🌍 Tariffs & Trade
- Tariffs currently not a major headwind.
- LNG is fungible, often traded multiple times before final delivery.
- If China exited the LNG buyer mix, volumes could be easily diverted to Europe or other regions.
📈 Company Outlook (Post-Merger)
- Following the Chesapeake–Southwestern merger, the company is now the largest natural gas producer in the U.S.
- Achieved $500M in annual synergies from the merger, especially in the Haynesville.
- Stock trading below analyst estimates is seen as a growth signal rather than weakness.
- Strong balance sheet after bankruptcy and restructuring; management credibility is high.
🏗️ Infrastructure & Permitting
- Strategy focuses not only on drilling but building infrastructure (“build baby build”).
- Key challenges: U.S. pipeline bottlenecks, electrical grid capacity, and permitting delays.
- The industry is engaging with regulators and the U.S. Department of Energy to improve approval processes.
💰 Commodity Prices & Capacity
- Current natural gas price: ~$3/MMBtu.
- Unprofitable drilling at certain hubs ($227 reference for oil equivalent).
- Declines in U.S. production observed in 2024 due to low prices, but new investments expected in 2025–26.
- Long-term forecast: $3.50–$4.00/MMBtu gas by 2026.
🌱 ESG & Carbon Neutrality
- Natural gas (especially dry gas) offers a low-carbon molecule, making ESG compliance easier.
- Buyers of U.S. LNG are willing to pay premiums for low-carbon cargoes.
- BlackRock and other investors continue to value ESG performance, even if priorities are shifting.
🌐 Geopolitics & Macroeconomic Risks
- Risks: tariffs, recession fears, OPEC supply management, U.S.–Saudi–Israel–Iran tensions.
- Uncertainty clouds the oil market outlook, though gas remains resilient.
- Higher U.S. interest rates could strain refinancing but also fuel growth-oriented investments.
🎯 Strategic Role of Gas
- Gas is considered “super strategic” for both U.S. energy dominance and global energy poverty reduction.
- The U.S. must expand pipelines, grid capacity, and export terminals to unlock its full advantage.
- Administration seen as supportive of growth and infrastructure, though permitting remains the bottleneck.
The U.S. economy faces uncertainty but isn’t in recession, with natural gas demand proving resilient thanks to AI, crypto, and LNG exports. Infrastructure bottlenecks and permitting delays remain the biggest barriers to fully capitalizing on U.S. energy resources. Despite short-term price weakness, long-term natural gas demand growth and merger synergies position leading U.S. producers for strong cash flow and stock performance.
