As drilling activity accelerates in Western Canada, a comparison of well permits issued from January through May highlights a clear year-over-year rebound.
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Western Canada Oil & Gas Market Intelligence Package
- Account Directory – List of Western Canada Oil & Gas Operators (includes rig count, wells drilled)
- Well Permits YTD
- Wells Drilled YTD
- Rig Report
Month 2024 Permits 2025 Permits (May Includes Forecast) Jan 285 376 Feb 311 385 Mar 404 423 Apr 456 456 May 423 536
🧠 Key Insight:
Permit activity in 2025 is trending higher across all five months, with May 2025 forecasted to surpass May 2024 by 113 permits, signaling sustained operator confidence even before the month ends.
📊 Year-to-Date Totals:
- 2024 (Jan–May): 1,879 permits
- 2025 (Jan–May, including forecast): 2,176 permits
- Change: +15.8% increase
🌐 LNG Canada, TMX, and Global Export Momentum
This rise in permitting aligns with renewed midstream and export capacity coming online in 2025:
- LNG Canada is entering final commissioning phases, with exports to Asia expected to commence in 2025. The project represents Canada’s first major liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal, unlocking long-term demand for natural gas from British Columbia and Alberta.
- The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) began shipping in Q2 2025, providing Alberta oil producers with direct access to tidewater and Asian markets, particularly China, where demand for heavy crude remains strong.
Together, these infrastructure milestones are reshaping market access and incentivizing upstream investment, especially in gas-weighted plays tied to global LNG demand.
📌 Conclusion:
The combination of export-driven demand, enhanced market access via TMX, and upstream confidence in natural gas pricing is fueling the uptick in new drilling permits. As LNG volumes ramp up and shipping lanes stabilize, 2025 could mark a structural shift in Western Canada’s growth cycle.
