Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL) continues to reinforce its position as one of Canada’s most disciplined and resilient oil and gas operators, combining steady production growth with long-life asset optimization.
For FY 2026, CNRL plans an operating capital budget of approximately C$6.3 billion, targeting average production of 1.59–1.65 MMboe/d. At the midpoint, this represents roughly 3% year-over-year growth, or about 50,000 boe/d, building on strong momentum from 2024 and 2025.
CNRL’s production mix remains balanced, with approximately 49% light crude, NGLs, and synthetic crude, 25% heavy oil, and 26% natural gas. This diversification provides operational flexibility across commodity price cycles while preserving exposure to long-duration assets.
What 2025 Drilling Tells Us About 2026
A review of CNRL’s 2025 wells drilled provides valuable context for where capital and activity are likely to remain concentrated.
In total, 420 wells were drilled in 2025. When grouped by development type, heavy oil dominated activity, accounting for 292 wells, while 128 wells targeted light oil and natural gas.
Heavy oil drilling was highly concentrated in core development areas, including Bonnyville, Lloydminster, Wainwright, and Fort McMurray, underscoring CNRL’s focus on repeatable, pad-based drilling in mature, low-decline assets. Activity in these areas was supported by a small group of high-utilization rigs, led by AKITA 28, Precision 183, Precision 300, Precision 153, and Horizon 19.
Light oil and gas drilling, by contrast, was more distributed across contractors and rigs. The most active rigs in this category included AKITA 31, Savanna 651, and multiple Ensign rigs, reflecting shorter-cycle development programs and a broader geographic footprint.
Long-Term Optionality Remains Intact
Beyond near-term drilling, CNRL is preserving future growth flexibility. The company has allocated C$175 million to front-end engineering and design (FEED) work for longer-dated projects such as Jackfish Brownfield, Pike 2, and a potential Jackpine mine expansion. In parallel, C$125 million has been earmarked for carbon capture initiatives, reinforcing emissions management as a core component of long-term project economics.
Bottom Line
CNRL’s 2026 outlook reflects a clear strategy: disciplined capital allocation, incremental growth, and continued emphasis on heavy oil and oil sands optimization. The 2025 drilling data confirms where activity is concentrated today—and offers a strong signal of where service demand, rig utilization, and infrastructure investment are likely to remain focused heading into 2026.
