On recent earnings calls, Exxon Mobil Corporation was unambiguous about the role of the Permian Basin in its long-term strategy. The basin is not a swing asset, not a short-cycle hedge, and not approaching a near-term peak. Instead, Exxon described the Permian as one of its two core upstream growth engines, alongside Guyana, with production expected to grow well beyond 2030 _What Exxon said about the Perm….
What makes Exxon’s Permian story especially compelling is that their words are directly supported by how capital, rigs, wells, and permits are distributed at the county level. When you break the basin down this way, a clear operating hierarchy emerges.
The Permian: A Long-Run Manufacturing Engine
Exxon reported record Permian production in Q4, reaching approximately 1.8 million boe/d — the highest company-wide production level in more than 40 years. Management explicitly stated there is “no near-term peak” for the Permian and expects production to exceed 2.5 million boe/d beyond 2030 _What Exxon said about the Perm….
This confidence is rooted in two factors:
- Scale and inventory depth
- Technology deployment, including lightweight proppant and more than 40 stackable technologies focused on improving recovery at the cube level rather than chasing short-term IP rates
That long-cycle mindset shows up clearly when activity is viewed by county.
Steady State Counties: Drilled Through Any Price Cycle
Midland County
Midland County sits at the center of Exxon’s Permian manufacturing model. It consistently captures the largest share of rigs, wells drilled, and long-cycle permits. This is acreage where drilling persists regardless of oil price because infrastructure, geology, and execution efficiency are fully optimized.
Midland’s dominance across multi-year permit inventory confirms it as capital-protected core acreage — the type of county Exxon can rely on through commodity cycles _What Exxon said about the Perm….
Eddy County
Eddy County plays a similarly durable role on the New Mexico side of the basin. It holds a major share of rig activity and remains heavily weighted in both historical and forward well counts. Notably, Eddy also accounts for a large portion of recent permitting, signaling continued confidence in long-term development.
Eddy represents a steady, repeatable development engine rather than opportunistic drilling — a defining trait of a Steady State county _What Exxon said about the Perm….
Martin County
Martin County completes the Steady State core. It consistently appears across wells drilled in both 2025 and 2026 and carries a significant share of Exxon’s long-cycle permit inventory. Importantly, Martin also shows up strongly in short-cycle permitting, reinforcing its role as both an execution and inventory county.
Together, Midland, Eddy, and Martin form the backbone of Exxon’s Permian strategy: counties that get drilled regardless of price because they anchor long-term value creation _What Exxon said about the Perm….
Emerging Counties: Where Momentum Is Quietly Building
Upton County
Upton County does not yet match the Steady State counties in long-cycle inventory, but it shows meaningful weight in forward wells drilled for 2026. This suggests Exxon is positioning Upton to absorb incremental capital as development expands outward from the core.
Upton fits the profile of an Emerging county — one where execution is increasing, but full normalization has not yet occurred.
Glasscock County
Glasscock County stands out most clearly in short-cycle permitting. Its share of permits issued in the last 60 days is significantly higher than its historical drilling share, making it a leading indicator of near-term momentum.
This pattern — rising short-term permits ahead of sustained drilling — is characteristic of early-stage expansion within a disciplined capital framework fileciteturn0file0.
Counties Outside the Core Focus
Reagan and Ward counties show minimal representation across rigs, forward wells, and recent permits. Their activity appears more episodic, suggesting legacy positions or lower-priority development rather than core capital deployment.
Leaving these counties unclassified strengthens the analysis by preserving discipline and avoiding over-interpretation.
What the County Breakdown Ultimately Shows
Exxon’s message about the Permian is not aspirational — it is operationally visible.
- Steady State counties (Midland, Eddy, Martin) represent capital that stays in the ground through cycles
- Emerging counties (Upton, Glasscock) signal where incremental growth and near-term momentum are forming
- Technology and inventory depth underpin confidence well beyond 2030
At the county level, Exxon’s Permian strategy looks exactly like a long-run manufacturing model: tight core execution, disciplined expansion, and a deep inventory that supports growth regardless of commodity volatility.
This is what “no near-term peak” looks like on the ground.
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