In its latest June 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) delivered a sobering update on the Eagle Ford Basin—once a crown jewel of U.S. shale development. The report underscores a clear pivot: natural gas production growth in the Eagle Ford is expected to stall and decline into 2026, primarily due to fewer drilling and completion activities planned by operators.

Eagle Ford Account Directory – only $10

Includes: Account Name, Phone, Address, Website, Wells Drilled, Rig Count…..

📉 Eagle Ford Leads Downward Revision in U.S. Gas Forecast

One of the most significant adjustments in the June forecast was a 700 MMcf/d reduction in the EIA’s 2026 U.S. dry gas production outlook. According to the agency, the Eagle Ford Basin is the leading contributor to that downward revision, with the Permian Basin also playing a key role.

“The 2026 reduction is partly related to low oil prices and is most significant for the Permian and Eagle Ford forecasts,” an EIA spokesperson said.

This forecast change reflects the reality that many operators across oil-heavy basins are scaling back their drilling programs amid commodity price pressure, capital discipline, and a focus on high-return core acreage. The Eagle Ford—where much of the gas is associated with oil production—is particularly sensitive to these variables.

🛠️ Operators Plan Fewer Wells

The EIA noted that the revision for 2026 stemmed from a reevaluation of rig activity trends and operator guidance. As drilling contractors and operators alike recalibrate their 2025 plans, the Eagle Ford appears to be losing out on new capital allocation. Even though 2025 gas production is still expected to increase modestly, momentum is expected to reverse in 2026.

“We expect that domestic consumption and exports combined will increase by nearly 4 Bcf/d this year, while U.S. dry natural gas production grows by less than 3 Bcf/d,” the EIA stated. The Eagle Ford won’t be a growth engine in that mix.

⚠️ Implications for the Basin

The Eagle Ford’s decline in activity highlights a broader trend playing out across U.S. shale: gas growth is being driven by gas-focused basins (like Appalachia and Haynesville), not by oil-focused ones like the Eagle Ford. Operators in the basin are prioritizing cash flow and capital returns over aggressive development.

This has major implications for:

Midstream companies operating in South Texas
Oilfield service providers depending on rig and frac spreads in the region
Royalty and mineral owners banking on stable production volumes

🔍 Final Thought: Eagle Ford Becomes a Swing Basin

The EIA’s June outlook paints a picture of the Eagle Ford transitioning from a core growth asset to a swing producer, responding more to price signals than long-term development plans. As low oil prices persist and LNG export growth tightens the market for dry gas, capital may continue shifting to more gas-productive basins with better economics.

If prices recover or policy incentives change, the Eagle Ford may regain momentum—but for now, the message is clear: the basin is in retreat.