The global competition for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) markets is becoming increasingly intense, especially as several large-scale LNG projects are proposed on the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. While the U.S. has long been a dominant player in the LNG market, upcoming projects from Canada, Mexico, Middle East, Alaska, and emerging regions like Guyana, West Africa, and the Mediterranean are positioning themselves as strong competitors to the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts.

US Overview

United States’ position as the largest LNG exporter globally in 2023, with a significant increase in exports driven by demand from Europe and Asia. The return of the Freeport LNG facility and strong European demand, particularly from the Netherlands, France, and the UK, were major factors. Additionally, the continued expansion of LNG import capacity in Europe, including new FSRUs and regasification terminals, suggests ongoing reliance on U.S. LNG as a substitute for Russian pipeline gas.

Key takeaways:

U.S. LNG Exports (2023): 11.9 Bcf/d, a 12% increase over 2022.

Top Importers of U.S. LNG: Netherlands, France, and the UK (4.2 Bcf/d combined, 35% of U.S. exports).

Top Regions: Europe (66% of U.S. LNG exports), Asia (26%), Latin America & the Middle East (8%).

Growth Drivers: Freeport LNG returning to full capacity, high European demand due to reduced Russian gas supply, and expanding European LNG import infrastructure.

Competitors: Australia and Qatar (10.1–10.5 Bcf/d), Russia (4.2 Bcf/d), Malaysia (3.5 Bcf/d).

New Importers: The Philippines and Vietnam began importing LNG in 2023.

Canada’s Pacific Coast

Canada is aggressively expanding its LNG export capabilities to serve the Asian market, with major projects on its Pacific Coast:

Coastal GasLink Pipeline: A 5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) pipeline supplying natural gas to the 1.85 bcf/d LNG Canada facility in Kitimat, British Columbia. The first phase is expected to begin operations this year, with a second 1.85 bcf/d phase planned.
Woodfibre LNG: A smaller-scale LNG project under construction near Vancouver, aimed at providing a low-carbon LNG supply to Asian markets.

Canada’s Pacific Coast projects benefit from shorter shipping distances to Asia, providing a competitive advantage over U.S. Gulf and East Coast facilities that rely on the Panama Canal, which is increasingly congested and expensive.

Mexico’s LNG Expansion

Mexico is emerging as a formidable LNG exporter, leveraging its access to cheap U.S. natural gas:

Permian Basin Pipeline Projects: Two major pipelines totaling 4 bcf/d capacity are being developed to transport gas from the Permian Basin to Mexico’s Pacific Coast.
Costa Azul LNG Terminal: One of the most advanced projects aimed at serving Asian markets without the need to navigate the Panama Canal.

Mexico’s strategic location and pipeline infrastructure provide it with a logistics advantage for shipping LNG to Asia compared to U.S. Gulf projects.

Alaska’s Ambitious $44 Billion LNG Project

LNG project on Alaska’s southern coast. If Japan and other Asian buyers commit to long-term contracts, this 3.1 bcf/d project could come online well before 2045. Alaska’s proximity to Asia gives it a substantial cost and time advantage over Gulf Coast projects.

Middle East – Qatar

The Middle East is expected to contribute over 10% of the global LNG liquefaction capacity increase by 2030, driven by abundant natural gas reserves and rising global demand. Qatar will lead the region’s expansion, accounting for over 65% of capacity additions with its North Field East, North Field South, and North Field West projects, adding 32 mtpa by 2026. Iran’s Bushehr terminal is also a significant contributor, expected to start operations this year and expand capacity to 10.8 mtpa by 2030.

Emerging Markets: Guyana, West Africa, and the Mediterranean

New LNG projects in Guyana, West Africa, and the Mediterranean are also being developed, primarily aimed at supplying the Atlantic Basin. These regions are increasingly viewed as viable alternatives to U.S. LNG, especially as geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties persist.

Pipeline Alternatives to Europe

The European Union’s reliance on LNG could decline if:

Russian pipelines are reactivated.
New pipeline supplies from Iraq, Iran, or Turkmenistan become available, reducing dependency on U.S. LNG imports.

Challenges Facing U.S. LNG Projects

U.S. LNG projects face several challenges:

Tariffs and High Capital Costs: The Biden administration and President Trump have imposed tariffs on steel and critical energy infrastructure components, increasing costs for LNG facilities that require high-cost cryogenic steel.
Workforce Availability: Competition for skilled labor is high, with ongoing projects struggling to secure enough qualified workers, driving up wages and potentially delaying timelines.
Hurricane Risks: U.S. Gulf Coast projects are particularly vulnerable to hurricanes, which can lead to extended operational disruptions.

The Future of U.S. LNG Exports

The U.S. LNG sector must adapt to the changing competitive landscape. To remain viable, companies will need to establish long-term contracts, reduce operational costs, and enhance supply chain resilience. However, with Canada, Mexico, and Alaska rapidly expanding their LNG capacities, the competition will only intensify.