Haynesville Seen Leading Lower 48 Natural Gas Production Decline in September

Natural gas production from seven key onshore Lower 48 regions will ease lower from August to September but remain above 98 Bcf/d, according to the latest modeling from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Total natural gas output from the Anadarko, Appalachia and Permian basins, as well as from the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara shales, will total 98.262 Bcf/d in September, a sequential decline of 147 MMcf/d, EIA said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), released Monday.

The largest monthly decline is expected to come from the gassy Haynesville, with regional output projected to drop 93 MMcf/d from August to September. The DPR also modeled monthly declines in output from the Anadarko (down 61 MMcf/d), Eagle Ford (down 41 MMcf/d) and Appalachia (down 22 MMcf/d) regions.

The oil-focused Permian, meanwhile, will increase natural gas output by 35 MMcf/d from August to September, the DPR data show. Gains are also expected from the Bakken (23 MMcf/d) and Niobrara (12 MMcf/d) regions, according to EIA.

The latest DPR modeled total oil production from the seven regions of just over 9.4 million b/d in September, a 20,000 b/d decline month/month. 

EIA modeled declines from the Permian (down 13,000 b/d), Eagle Ford (down 11,000 b/d), Anadarko (down 2,000 b/d) and Appalachia (down 1,000 b/d) regions. August to September gains were modeled for the Bakken (4,000 b/d) and Niobrara (3,000 b/d) regions.

Total drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells among the seven regions stood at 4,787 as of July, down five versus the month-earlier period, according to the latest EIA modeling. The Haynesville increased its DUC backlog by 12 from June to July. The Bakken (down 10), Appalachia (down six) and Niobrara (down one) each drew down their respective backlogs.

The Anadarko, Eagle Ford and Permian regions saw no change in total DUC wells from June to July in EIA’s data.

EIA’s DPR uses recent rig data along with drilling productivity estimates and estimated changes in production from existing wells to model changes in production from the seven regions.

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