U.S. oil production resilience depends on two pillars:

An inventory of low-cost projects (sub-$40/bbl)
Sustained operational activity to avoid decline and cost inflation

Insights from the top oil & gas CEOs reinforce this model—but they also reveal growing concern about capital discipline and production headwinds.

📉 The Cost Curve Advantage — but Only if You Keep Drilling

✅ Ryan Lance (ConocoPhillips) underscores the advantage of inventory depth:

“We have decades of inventory below our $40 per barrel WTI cost of supply threshold… this optionality is what separates the inventory haves from the have nots.”
— Q1 2025 Earnings Call

This is echoed by Andy O’Brien (ConocoPhillips CFO):

“Our free cash flow breakeven is in the mid-40s… with major projects coming online, we expect breakeven to fall into the low 30s.”

✅ Darren Woods (ExxonMobil) adds that short-cycle projects boost flexibility:

“Over a third of our production comes from short cycle U.S. unconventional assets… That gives us flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions.”

📍Takeaway: Low-cost breakevens and short-cycle shale offer a competitive edge only if there’s an active machine feeding it.

⚠️ The Decline Dilemma — Why Pausing Activity is a Risk

While efficiency has improved, base declines are accelerating, and CEOs are warning about the limits of doing more with less.

⚠️ Travis Stice (Diamondback) states bluntly:

“At roughly 6 million barrels of oil a day [Permian], we’ve got a base decline… of about 2.5 million barrels a day… this is not one of the types of declines that can be offset by improved efficiencies.”

He adds:

“We’re picking pennies up now… The marginal barrel in the U.S. is just not being produced today.”

⚠️ Vicki Hollub (Oxy) warns about production peaking early:

“We had expected that U.S. production would peak between 2027 and 2030. It’s looking like… that peak could come sooner.”
— Q1 2025

📍Takeaway: Without sustained drilling and completions, even the Permian’s strength may not hold.

🔁 Consistency is Efficiency: Stop-Start Drilling is a Problem

✅ Clay Gaspar (Devon) emphasizes that consistency is what underpins efficiency:

“All of the operational efficiencies… are on the back of that consistency.”
— On avoiding knee-jerk cuts to activity

✅ John Raines (Devon) adds:

“Most all of our projects… are meeting to exceeding expectations… we’re really upbeat.”

Meanwhile, Kaes Van’t Hof (Diamondback) captures the whiplash of U.S. shale’s reflex-driven response model:

“This is the fourth time we’ve had to do this in 10 years… you saw how quickly shale responded.”

📍Takeaway: U.S. shale’s superpower—its flexibility—becomes a liability when it drives feast-or-famine drilling cycles.

🔩 Operator Strategy: Efficiency Gains vs. Plateau Risk

✅ Mike Wirth (Chevron):

“Base business performance continues to improve with higher reliability and lower decline rates.”

“We expect to hold [DJ Basin] production at a plateau around 400,000 barrels per day through the end of the decade.”

But even Wirth is clear that sustained frac activity is required:

“Growth towards a sustained 1,000,000 barrels per day [in the Permian] to resume… with higher frac activity.”

📍Takeaway: Holding flat or growing still depends on keeping rigs and frac crews working at scale.

🔍 Conclusion

Your model holds: U.S. production can remain globally competitive thanks to low-cost inventory—but only if operators avoid cutting too deep or delaying activity.
Without that, even the Permian will face premature decline.