The upcoming 2024 US presidential election will play a pivotal role in determining the future of American energy policy. With Kamala Harris representing the Democratic agenda and Donald Trump poised to return to office with a pro-fossil fuel platform, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Whether the nation will continue to pursue renewable energy expansion or pivot back toward oil, gas, and coal will shape the energy landscape for decades.

Here’s an overview of how the election results could reshape energy policy in key areas.

1. Permitting Reform: Streamlining or Splitting Priorities?

At the heart of US energy policy is the bipartisan Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024 (EPRA). Designed to accelerate infrastructure projects, EPRA covers everything from renewable power transmission to gas pipelines. The bill’s fate will depend heavily on who takes office.

Harris Administration: While supporting permitting reform, Harris is likely to push for a version focused exclusively on renewables and grid reliability, separating these efforts from oil and gas infrastructure projects.
Trump Administration: Trump’s energy dominance agenda aligns with fast-tracking EPRA’s broader approach, allowing both fossil fuel and renewable projects to advance quickly. This could also favor the fossil fuel industry’s interests in expanding production and pipelines.

Whether passed before the current congressional session ends or delayed until 2025, permitting reform will play a crucial role in shaping the next generation of energy infrastructure.

2. The Future of LNG Exports: Expansion or Delay?

The Department of Energy (DOE) recently paused new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits, citing the need to assess the environmental, economic, and community impacts. With several key LNG projects stalled, the election outcome will decide how the US approaches its LNG ambitions.

Under Trump: The pause on LNG permits would end immediately, and both the DOE and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) would expedite the approval process.
Under Harris: Extended reviews with stricter criteria would likely remain in place, and approval processes could shift toward a more rigorous environmental framework.

Even with a quick restart under Trump, staffing delays at federal agencies mean new LNG permits may not be issued until late 2025. This lag poses a challenge for LNG developers competing in a dynamic global market.

3. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions: Stricter Standards or a Rollback?

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has set new standards limiting greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power plants and newly constructed gas facilities. These regulations are intended to encourage carbon capture and accelerate the retirement of aging coal plants.

Harris: Her administration would proceed with implementing these standards and might even extend regulations to existing gas plants.
Trump: The former president has indicated he would repeal these emissions standards and could challenge the EPA’s authority to regulate carbon emissions altogether.

The next administration’s stance on GHG emissions will not only affect the future of coal and gas generation but will also influence US commitments to global climate agreements.

4. Downwind Pollution and the Good Neighbor Plan

The EPA’s Good Neighbor Plan (GNP) tackles emissions that drift across state lines, impacting air quality in downwind states. The GNP is currently under review after legal challenges but remains a point of contention between both parties.

Harris: She would likely defend and enforce the GNP, strengthening cross-state pollution controls to improve air quality.
Trump: His administration would seek to repeal the GNP, favoring deregulation and reducing burdens on upwind states.

This issue highlights the importance of state collaboration in balancing industrial growth with public health priorities.

5. Methane Emissions: Domestic Politics and Global Pressure

The Methane Emissions Reduction Plan, implemented under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), aims to curb methane leaks and includes penalties for excessive emissions. While politically contentious, the plan is aligned with international efforts, such as the European Union’s new methane regulation.

Harris: She would maintain or expand methane rules, positioning the US as a global leader in responsible gas production.
Trump: His administration would likely weaken or dismantle these regulations, though industry trends may still drive emission reductions to meet global market demands.

The outcome of the election will influence the regulatory environment for methane, but international pressure, especially from Europe, will continue pushing US gas producers to improve their environmental practices.

6. The Inflation Reduction Act and US Climate Commitments

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed in 2022, provided significant funding for renewable energy projects and emissions reduction initiatives. This legislation, along with the US commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement, could be in jeopardy depending on the election results.

Harris: She would defend the IRA and continue promoting renewables, which could accelerate the phase-out of coal and gas-fired power.
Trump: A second Trump presidency could see the dismantling of the IRA and a potential withdrawal from international climate agreements, shifting focus back to domestic fossil fuel production.

Conclusion: A Crossroads for US Energy Policy

The 2024 election presents two very different futures for US energy policy. A Harris presidency would emphasize clean energy, emissions reduction, and international climate commitments. In contrast, a Trump administration would prioritize energy independence, deregulation, and fossil fuel expansion.

The stakes are high, with implications for domestic energy markets, infrastructure development, and global climate leadership. The outcome of this election will not only shape the trajectory of American energy but also influence the country’s role on the world stage.

Whichever path the US takes, the energy industry will need to adapt quickly to the shifting policy landscape, balancing regulatory changes with market demands.

For further insights into the potential outcomes and a deeper dive into the key energy sectors affected, download our full report: The 2024 US Election: A Fork in the Road for Energy Policy.

This blog captures the complex dynamics at play in the upcoming election, giving you a glimpse into the policies that will define the future of energy in North America. Stay informed—what happens in November could set the course for years to come.